Kathmandu: In previous elections, CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli would deliver a few speeches in his home constituency and then tour the entire country. This time, however, he has been forced to completely change his campaign strategy. He returned to Kathmandu only on Wednesday afternoon, released the party’s election manifesto on Thursday, and by Saturday he had already flown back to Jhapa. Since then, he has been fully immersed in his own constituency.

The tension for Oli began even before the election was announced. It intensified dramatically when senior Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) leader Balendra Shah (Balen) — who is also the party’s prime ministerial candidate — decided to contest directly against him. UML leaders themselves admit that the pressure has risen sharply since Balen entered the fray in Jhapa-5.

The personal and political distance between Oli (former prime minister) and Balen (former Kathmandu mayor) had been growing for years. That rivalry has now turned Jhapa-5 into the epicentre of a high-stakes prestige battle between the old guard and the new wave. Oli, who has never lost this seat since 2064 BS (except once), is now forced to contemplate the real possibility of defeat.

Balen is under equal pressure. He is anxious about which way the Jhapa voters will swing. Even before filing his nomination, his team conducted surveys and concluded that the mood could be shifted in his favour. That is why he rushed to Jhapa.

“We had done our surveys. We decided to field him here only because we believed Oli could be defeated,” said one member of Balen’s core team. “Later the atmosphere kept improving for us. If we continue this hard work, victory is possible — but Balen himself must not leave the constituency.”

RSP candidates across the country desperately want Balen and RSP Chairman Ravi Lamichhane to visit their areas. Yet after filing his nomination, Balen has not limited himself to Jhapa-5. While he travels nationally, his wife Sabina Kaphle and a dedicated team have remained firmly grounded in Jhapa, conducting continuous door-to-door campaigns.

As Balen’s influence grew, UML realised winning would not be easy. Even traditional UML voters had begun tilting towards the RSP’s bell symbol. This forced the party to rethink its entire approach.

“We started listening carefully,” said a senior UML office-bearer. “We found that even our own cadres were dissatisfied. It seemed they were not choosing Balen out of love for him, but out of anger with UML. So we changed tactics. We began programmes where voters’ grievances are heard directly by Oli himself, and we are addressing cadre complaints one by one.”

According to local feedback, Jhapa voters are unhappy with district-level UML leaders and want their issues taken straight to Oli. In response, UML has adopted a policy of sending Oli house-to-house to solicit votes.

A member of Oli’s election team said the first phase of door-to-door campaigning has been completed in most areas of Damak except a few wards. After the Koshi Province-level Volunteers Force meeting in Jhapa-5 on Monday, the second phase will begin, alongside other strategic vote-consolidation efforts.

Neither candidate is treating other parties as real competitors in Jhapa-5. Instead, both are quietly negotiating with other parties to attract their votes.

Balen reached Jhapa on Jan 20 to file his nomination. Energised, he immediately launched a nationwide tour — covering Ilam, Taplejung, Udayapur, Okhaldhunga, Ramechhap, then Madhesh, Karnali, and Sudurpaschim. He was focusing on big public meetings.

To counter accusations that he avoids large rallies, Balen had already addressed a big gathering in Janakpur before returning to Jhapa. In recent meetings he has been delivering short, crisp speeches. RSP’s strategy was to heat up the atmosphere by fielding Balen and Ravi together. But on Thursday, while in Surkhet, Balen suddenly flew back to Kathmandu.

Citing excessive fatigue, he returned with close aide Kumar Ben. He instructed his team, however, to stay in Jhapa with Sabina and intensify house-to-house outreach.

Balen’s core campaign mantra is door-to-door contact rather than long speeches. He has advised all RSP candidates: avoid lengthy speeches and empty promises; listen to voters’ concerns; and only visit constituencies when genuinely requested.

But the postponement of big RSP rallies was not only due to his door-to-door focus. A leader close to Balen explained: “We heard the atmosphere in Jhapa had deteriorated, so we returned. Initially it was very encouraging for us. But UML gradually regained ground. When we learned that the mood had improved for Oli in Balen’s absence, we decided to make Jhapa the absolute centre of our campaign.”

Even while Balen was on the national tour, his team was preparing a separate manifesto specifically for Jhapa-5. On Saturday, after returning to Jhapa, Balen reviewed the draft but was not satisfied. That is why the manifesto, which was supposed to be released on Sunday morning, was still not public by evening. Once finalised, Balen plans to record a video message and release it.

Oli, by contrast, had already released his own manifesto earlier. When Oli unveiled his in Jhapa, Balen was in western Nepal campaigning for other candidates. Immediately afterwards, Balen made the sudden decision to head east.

After Balen returned to Kathmandu citing ill health, RSP postponed scheduled rallies in Bhairahawa and Pokhara. Yet the very next day he was back in his constituency, actively campaigning. On Sunday he conducted door-to-door visits with a small personal team. Balen prefers moving with a minimal group and has instructed local RSP leaders to operate independently.

His team now claims Balen will remain fully focused on Jhapa-5.

“He should not travel much anymore,” a team member said. “One- or two-day trips are fine, but otherwise he will stay right here in Jhapa and meet voters house by house.”

Meanwhile, Oli has already completed the first phase of door-to-door campaigning in Kamal Rural Municipality, Gauradaha Municipality, and Gauriganj Rural Municipality. Once the remaining wards in Damak are covered, the second phase will begin. On Monday, the Koshi Province Volunteers Force meeting will be held in Damak, which UML plans to turn into a grand public rally.

On the very day he returned to Jhapa, Oli participated in an interaction programme organised by the private sector (HISAN). On Sunday he attended a discussion on his wife Radhika Shakya’s book “Anubhuti” (which has been republished with added coverage of the Gen-Z movement events).

Oli’s first priority is to protect and consolidate the UML’s own vote bank. His strategy includes personally meeting every ward-level cadre, calling them on the phone, and keeping them fully active. A UML leader admitted that although the party’s base vote in Jhapa is around 37,000, it is currently under pressure.

“Our base is 37,000. We may lose 2–4 thousand. Even then we are calculating around 32,000. We have already attracted some new votes, so we are confident of reaching 40–42,000 and winning,” said a central leader working on Oli’s campaign. “RSP has no such base. Most people currently campaigning for them are outsiders. Even if they get all the Congress, Maoist, and RPP votes, they won’t cross 30,000. This election will polarise between two poles. The remaining parties will share around 20,000 votes.”

UML’s strategy is to secure its own votes while preventing Balen from gaining ground by quietly courting Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist), and RPP votes. High-level talks are already underway. Oli is particularly hopeful about the Sher Bahadur Deuba faction of Congress, which is reportedly unhappy with its own party and positively inclined towards him.

Similarly, UML is trying to secure RPP support by helping its chairman Rajendra Lingden in Jhapa-3. Leaders close to Balen say they are fully aware that “all old parties may unite at the last moment to defeat Balen”.

“This has become more than an ordinary election,” one Balen aide said. “To defeat Balen, anything can happen. They are panicked by the atmosphere and may do anything. We are alert. If we can hold this momentum, we will win by a margin of 10–15 thousand votes.”

Both Oli (from UML) and Balen (from RSP) have already been declared their parties’ prime ministerial candidates. Their direct contest in Jhapa-5 is not merely about the seat — it has become a symbolic clash. Oli accuses Balen of orchestrating the Gen-Z movement and burning Singha Durbar. Balen accuses Oli of ordering police to fire during the Gen-Z protests, resulting in the deaths of children.

A high-level probe commission is currently investigating both sets of allegations and preparing its report. However, the government — fearing the report could damage the atmosphere before polling — has extended the tenure of the commission led by Gauri Bahadur Karki until after the election. Both leaders are racing to secure victory before any report is released.